Fall of 2022 was a fun time to be a Philadelphia sports fan. As the Eagles maintained a fat donut in the L column all the way into November, the Phillies mashed their way through one of the most memorable postseasons in the city’s rich sports history. Doubted the whole way, the Phillies used their underdog energy to outscore and outlast their opponents. After surviving the loaded Cardinals, Braves and Padres, the Fall Classic would return to Philadelphia for the first time in over a decade.
The Phillies eventually fell to the dynastic Houston Astros in a six-game set, ending the most magical playoff run the city had seen since Nick Foles lifted the Lombardi trophy in 2017. Speaking of the Eagles, they would go on to lose in heartbreaking fashion to the Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. All of the sudden, the air was sucked out of the room, and Philly fans were back down to earth. Left to pick up the pieces of a season that ended just two wins short of being baseball world champions, Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies front office set out to give the team a shot in the arm for the looming 2023 campaign.
The regular season is over now, and the gig is up. The proverbial cat is out of the bag. The Phillies have pushed all their chips to the center of the table, and are all in on bringing a World Series trophy back to the City of Brotherly Love.
So, underdogs no longer, and in a crowded field of vicious competition, can the Phillies reprise their role as National League representative at the Fall Classic?
The stats that will be used from this point on come from Baseball Reference, unless mentioned otherwise. When it comes to game planning for the Phillies, if you were an opposing skipper, the aspect of the team that would immediately command most of your attention would be the jet-fuel powered offense. While the Phillies are, to the chagrin of fans, notoriously a hot/cold lineup, the pure potential energy, one through nine, should be terrifying to other teams.
MLB statistics show us that the Phillies rank top ten in batting average, on base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Let’s take a look at some individual players to see how this strength can be leveraged to our advantage.
If the Phillies want to compete against teams like the historically potent Braves, they’ll need to rely on continued contributions from the “Phillies Daycare,” as they are affectionately known.
Bryson Stott is the headliner among the young guys, posting a .745 OPS as a breakout second-baseman.
Batting from the left side, Stott is a professional contact hitter who routinely puts the ball in play.
Brandon Marsh is also blossoming into a constant offensive contributor, currently sporting a 124 OPS+.
For those unfamiliar with the metric, OPS+ is a league-adjusted stat in which 100 is the average. This means that Marsh’s 124 makes him 24% better than an average Major League hitter. Marsh is often platooned alongside right-handed center fielders Johan Rojas (.298 BA) and Cristian Pache (120 OPS+).
Although their eye-catching numbers have been accumulated in relatively small sample sizes, the talent is very clearly present. This lively core of fundamentally sound ballplayers will tilt the odds greatly in the Phillies’ favor if they can continue their impressive production.
As for the star players on the Phillies (i.e. Harper, Turner, Castellanos and Realmuto) their only expectations, for the most part, should be to continue their regular season explosiveness.
Cold streaks from Castellanos and shaky play from Realmuto at times aside, the players who are making the big bucks are doing it for good reason.
Bryce Harper is a baseball robot, simply put. He returned months early from Tommy John surgery to post a .905 OPS and a 146 OPS+. That places Harper, who is almost 50% better than a replacement level player, as a batter – an astonishingly impressive metric.
Not to mention, if the Phillies can count on a postseason from Bryce as red hot as last season’s, opposing pitchers will simply not have a good time. Trea Turner, reunited with his buddy Bryce from their Nationals days, will have to continue his jaw-dropping performance since the standing ovation he received on Aug. 4. StatMuse tells us that since then, Turner has recorded a .342 BA with 16 HRs.
Pitching is, admittedly, more of a question mark for the Phillies this year than fans would have hoped.
Aaron Nola has struggled, posting a 4.46 ERA and a 96 ERA+. This means that Nola has actually performed 4% worse than the average pitcher this season. A major dropoff from last season’s 124 ERA+, he will have to find his stuff again this October if he is to perform in the role of a true number two ace.
Zack Wheeler has also fallen off a bit, up from a 2.82 ERA in 2022 to a 3.64 mark this season. Although the numbers are not excellent, Wheeler does pass the eye test as a hurler who can be the Phillies’ reliable top arm in the postseason.
Michael Lorenzen, Ranger Suárez, and Taijuan Walker are cast to fill out the rotation, with the intriguing 26-year-old Cristopher Sánchez (3.48 ERA, 124 ERA+) potentially seeing a start. Against explosive National League offenses who will come to play, the Phillies rotation will have to lock in, and be the stingy rotation they have the potential to be.
As competitive a path as the Phillies will have to a title this postseason, the Phillies are built for this. A brilliantly talented core of high-powered vets and a fun mix of young playmakers give this team the optimal DNA to stretch this run just as far as last season.
Carlo Constantine is a second-year political science major. CC1031591@wcupa.edu
Baseball Reference: https://www.baseball-reference.com/
StatMuse: https://www.statmuse.com/
MLB stats: https://www.mlb.com/stats/team/batting-average