With the Democratic Party primary season underway, the race to the White House officially began this month.Coverage of the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary has dominated the national news coverage over the past month as the Democrats involved battle for the delegates necessary to obtain their party’s nomination as candidate for the Presidency of the United States.
The winner of the Democratic Party nomination will be the main source of competition for the incumbent, President George W. Bush. With so much transpiring in the Iowa and New Hampshire races, the political science department held an election panel this past Thursday to review the results and discuss what can be expected to come in the future as the election season continues.
Dr. Loedel served as moderator, and Professor Kennedy and Klaiber were on hand to discuss the issues and offer their insights on the early happenings of Election 2004. Kennedy began by focusing on the Democratic field and assessing the odds each had to win their party nomination. According to Kennedy, Sen. John Kerry of Mass. is the front runner and has a 70 percent chance of capturing the nomination. He supported his argument citing a Newsweek poll that has Kerry running ahead of President Bush. Kerry’s primary source of competition will be Sen. John Edwards of SC who Kennedy thinks has a 15 percent chance of earning his party’s nomination. Edwards’ strength, according to Kennedy, is that he is the “anti-Dean,” in that he is very upbeat and looks young, something appealing to many American voters.
Speaking of Dr. Howard Dean, the initial front-runner has suffered over the past week as he has been leapfrogged by Kerry in the polls. The reason for this, Kennedy says, is that Dean “peaked too soon.” He compared Dean’s position to that of Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992, where “voters’ remorse” set in among the public and they grew tired of voting for the front-runner.
Kennedy still believes Dean has a slight chance of winning giv-ing him a 10 percent chance, but he seems set that the American public will witness a battle between Kerry and Edwards to be the Democratic Party’s nominee. He noted that this coming Tuesday, Feb. 3 there will be seven more primaries/caucuses throughout the country and that a better idea could be expected following the results of the voting that day.
Klaiber used his time to focus on the issues facing the president at this time. He reviewed the past month for the president and pointed out that it has not been very favorable for the incumbent. Klaiber believes that the real stories of the election thus far occurred with the recent revelations that no weapons of mass destruction were in Iraq and the demeaning comments made by a former Bush staff member claiming that Bush was incompetent.
Topped with the fact that for the first time ever, the president’s approval rating dropped following this month’s State of the Union address, it seems the country may be leaning against the president.
Klaiber also noted that the strongest critics of Bush in the Democratic race, Kerry and Dean, finished first and third in Iowa, and first and second in New Hampshire. He expressed surprise that the capture of Sadam Hussein has not “pushed the president over the top” as the news media felt it would upon initial reports of the former dictator’s capture. Along with Kennedy, Klaiber feels that this will be an interesting campaign, a stark contrast to the previous two, due to the ideological differences the final candidates will have.
Throughout the program the speakers welcomed questions and comments from the students in attendance. This forum was just the first of what is planned to be a series of discussions involving the race to the White House this year. Students of all majors are welcome to attend the next meeting and bring their opinions. No date has been announced for the next forum, but keep an eye out on campus for fliers advertising the next chance to analyze Election 2004.